Macronomy

Where are we in the economic cycle?

Daily-updated economic indicators to help you understand where the market and economy stand relative to historical norms.

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CAPE Ratio

41.53(+2.23σ)

Oct 9, 2026 · 98TH pct

Buffett Indicator

265.7%(+2.49σ)

Oct 9, 2026 · 100TH pct

Mean Reversion

7,811.54(+2.55σ)

Oct 9, 2026 · 100TH pct

Equity Risk Premium

-2.83%(+1.39σ)

Oct 9, 2026 · 94TH pct

Investor Equity Allocation

57.6%(+2.77σ)

Oct 9, 2026 · 100TH pct

Margin Debt

37.2%(+2.45)

Aug 2026 · 89TH pct

Market Concentration

77.8%(+2.97)

Aug 2026 · 99TH pct

FRED Recession Risk

0.6%(-0.94)

Aug 2026 · 71ST pct

Yield Curve

0.99%(+0.43σ)

Oct 9, 2026 · 66TH pct

1Y-Fed Funds Spread

0.56%(-0.65σ)

Oct 8, 2026 · 16TH pct

Sahm Rule

0.00%(-0.50)

Sep 2026 · 33RD pct

BBK Leading Index

-0.34(+0.34σ)

Aug 2026 · 67TH pct

VIX Index

15.41(-0.52σ)

Oct 8, 2026 · 35TH pct

GZ Credit Spread

93 bps(-0.90σ)

Sep 2026 · 9TH pct

Excess Bond Premium

-39 bps(-0.86σ)

Sep 2026 · 9TH pct

ANFCI

-0.504(-0.50σ)

Oct 2, 2026 · 38TH pct

Consumer Sentiment

48.10(+2.62σ)

Sep 2026 · 100TH pct

Discretionary / Staples Ratio

1.79(-2.41)

Oct 9, 2026 · 12TH pct

Unemployment Rate

4.2%(-0.85σ)

Sep 2026 · 20TH pct

Initial Claims

197K(-2.89)

Oct 3, 2026 · 2ND pct

JOLTS Job Openings

7.1M(-0.69σ)

Aug 2026 · 25TH pct

Quits Rate

1.9%(+0.30σ)

Aug 2026 · 60TH pct

Wage Growth Tracker

3.70%(+0.20)

Sep 2026 · 44TH pct

Indeed Job Postings

103.84(+0.62σ)

Oct 2, 2026 · 70TH pct

Core PCE

3.01%(+1.01)

Aug 2026 · 58TH pct

Core CPI

2.45%(+0.45)

Aug 2026 · 42ND pct

Trimmed Mean PCE

2.19%(+0.19)

Aug 2026 · 36TH pct

Producer Prices (PPI)

5.41%(+2.09)

Aug 2026 · 82ND pct

5Y5Y Forward Inflation

2.32%(+0.64)

Oct 9, 2026 · 54TH pct

Months' Supply of New Homes

8.5 mo(+1.34σ)

Aug 2026 · 88TH pct

Building Permits

1.40M(-0.08σ)

Aug 2026 · 47TH pct

30Y Mortgage Rate

7.40%(+2.40)

Oct 8, 2026 · 52ND pct

Fed Balance Sheet

$6.75T(-0.35σ)

Oct 7, 2026 · 42ND pct

M2 Money Supply

5.6%(-0.10σ)

Aug 31, 2026 · 47TH pct

Real Fed Funds Rate

0.62%(+0.12)

Aug 2026 · 38TH pct

10Y Term Premium

0.92%(+0.18σ)

Oct 8, 2026 · 58TH pct

Credit Card Delinquency

2.85%(-0.71σ)

Q2 2026 · 31ST pct

CC Delinquency (Small Banks)

6.49%(+1.30σ)

Q2 2026 · 87TH pct

Real Retail Sales

2.58%(-0.11σ)

Aug 2026 · 43RD pct

Macronomy | Economic Cycle Indicators