As of Nov 3, 2026 · Releases: Monthly (Shiller; chart extended daily from S&P 500) · Source: Shiller CAPE dataset + S&P 500
Last data pull…
Very High
40.19
CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio) is one of the best predictors of long-term stock market returns. It is calculated by dividing the S&P 500 by its 10-year inflation-adjusted earnings average. When the ratio is high, subsequent 10-year returns have historically been weaker, not because a crash is imminent but because you're paying more today for the same stream of future earnings. When CAPE is elevated, investors should temper their long-term return expectations; when it's depressed, the opposite is true. This doesn't help you time the next 12 months, but it directly shapes what a retirement plan can realistically assume from equity returns.