Quits Rate

When people quit their jobs voluntarily, it's usually because they have a better offer in hand or they're confident enough in the labor market to start looking. So the Quits Rate is one of the cleanest reads on worker leverage and how secure people feel about their employment options. A high or rising rate means workers have power — wages get bid up, hiring is competitive, the Fed worries about wage-driven inflation. A falling rate means the opposite: people are staying put because they don't trust the alternatives, which historically precedes layoffs and unemployment increases by several months. Pair with the JOLTS Job Openings card to see both sides of the labor market on the same monthly report; pair with Initial Claims for the leading-vs-coincident view. For anyone weighing a job change or salary negotiation, this is the single best indicator of whether your bargaining position is improving or eroding.